So much for Federer challenging Nadal on clay. Federer lost break leads multiple times in the first set and then let a 4-0 lead away to Nadal in the 2nd set to lose 5-7, 5-7 in straight sets. Federer showed that he had the game plan right but his inconsistency from the back of the court and some poor games after breaking Nadal did him in today. He really should’ve won the second set but inexplicably lost his momentum being 4-0 up in the 2nd. I wonder if we even have to go through all these coming tournaments on clay as there seems to be only one winner for the French, and that’s Nadal. Others can only be content with moral victories such as the # of games won against Nadal.

So it’s been a few these since I posted on Monte Carlo. No, I was not ashamed of my hideous prediction. I predicted that Roger in his sub par form may not have enough to beat Monfils, Nalbandian, and Djokovic. Sure enough Roger beat all those guys and pretty comfortably too. Nadal was Nadal really. He is a beast on clay, and unless someone beat him in a best of 5 set match, I’ll have to go with him.

Does that mean Roger will have no chance tomorrow? Not true. Roger will have his chances tomorrow. One thing that Roger is doing very well this week is converting his break points. He is notorious for going 1 out of 40 or so on his break points, but he went 5/5 against Nalbandian and had similar numbers against Djokovic and others. Also, Roger has been attacking the 2nd serve really well. Something he didn’t do last year and paid for it on clay. With Nadal’s serve so hittable, I expect Roger to do much better than last year. Still, Nadal should have enough to grind out a 3 setter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Roger got him (it will all depend on how Roger handles the lefty’s game as it takes him time to get used to it).

So tomorrow will be close, but Nadal should win in 3 sets, possibly 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.

Finally. Tennis Channel is finally showing a meaningful tournament. It’s been a pretty difficult year for Tennis fans as coverage is few and far between these days, but Tennis channel showing Monte Carlo masters will hopefully satisfy some of the crazed tennis fans. Of course it doesn’t help that the coverage is 4 am - 12 pm eastern time.

Federer has finally won a title in 2008. It may not have been the way he wanted to win, but a win is a win. Federer won a tight first set tie-break against Davydenko, and was down a break in the 2nd set when Davydenko retired. Still, this is by no means an indication of Federer’s good form on Clay, and I’d be surprised if he navigated his way through the minefield of a draw that he has gotten at Monte Carlo.

Small final events are not usually big deals to the mighty Roger Federer. But considering that Federer has failed to reach any finals so far, then reaching Estoril clay court tournament is pretty significant. Federer had a couple of scares and dropped a couple of sets against much weaker opponents, but he can’t expect to win his first title by playing tentatively against the rejuvenated Davydenko. I personally see a three set win for Federer on the cards, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Davydenko won it and completed a 1-2 win in a month.

So Andy Roddick has had a breakthrough year this year. He has beaten Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic so far, and dominated his Davis cup matches. But does he truly want to be No. 1 again? If so, how is it that he is skipping important clay court tournaments, and not giving clay a good try. Roddick has a big serve, but clay exposes how limited he really is tennis wise. Can he win a couple of matches on clay? You bet he can. Can he win the French? Of course not. But he doesn’t need to. Anything is better than a first round exit at this point. But he won’t do any better if he doesn’t try.

It was one of those days for Roger. Having 6 break points in the first set but going 0/6 on those. Add 50% break point conversion for Rochus and we had the real possibility of Federer losing again in the first round. But Federer bounced back to spank Rochus in the next two sets and advance. Rochus is a very good player however. For those of you who may not remember, he had 2 match points against Roger at Halle last year, which would’ve ended Roger’s streak on Grass. Roger won that in a third set tie-breaker, but Rochus showed that his game can trouble Roger. But the happiest man on the earth should be Nadal right now as the No. 2 clay courter in the world is playing below par for a few months now.

If you haven’t heard it by now, Federer is in a funk. He has had a difficult season, and has not reached any finals. He has even lost to Americans Fish and Roddick in Masters tournaments. The solution? Higueras! Federer is turning to the coach to change his French Open fortune. Winning the French is the only way you could call this year less than disappointing for Federer. SI has this breaking story here.

Higueras is a great coach, and I am sure for anyone but Federer he could be a fortune changer. But Federer has shown in the past that he is so strong-willed that he will not change his ways easily just because his coach tells him too. In the end, if Higueras gets Federer to play a more attacking type of game on the clay courts of France, Federer will finally challenge Nadal. If not, Higueras will be another Roche.

It’s nothing official. Many say it never happens. But Rafael Nadal will catch Roger Federer before the start of the French Open to end his quest for the No. 1 status in the world. It will be highly unlikely that Federer does not slip up before the French Open and with so many points to defend in the clay season, Federer could lose as much as 200 points per masters tournament which means if Nadal wins Hamburg, Federer will be dethroned as the World No. 1. That is considering that Federer does not experience a first round meltdown such as he did at Dubai (a tournament he was defending). I simply can’t see Federer going to Wimbledon as the No. 1 especially if Nadal repeats as French Open Champion.

The Miami Masters is over, and the only thing worse than the state of tennin in the U.S. is the state of tennis commentary in the U.S. FSN was kind enough to pick up what ESPN dropped in masters series Miami and Indian Wells, but after watching two weeks of Tennis with FSN, I am ready to go back to good old text coverage provided by EuroSport.com. As if it’s not bad to read crazy articles (e.g. Roddick’s back or Sampras can win Wimbledon) in the U.S. media, we had to listen to unfunny, never-to-the-point, ignorant Jusitn Gimelstob, who by the way has nothing to talk about expect his buddy Roddick week in week out. For some reason, I have never found Justin to be funny or good at what he does. Some may disagree with me, and they are all entitled to their opinion, but from what I have heard on major Tennis forums such as MensTennisForums, Justin is in the running for the worst tennis commentator ever lived.  I don’t know what the heck FSN is thinking by giving the mic to someone who was never good at Tennis to now commentate it for us hardcore fans. Here are just a few articles that shows his obsession with Andy Roddick (Sorry Justin, but it’s too obvious):

• Think you’re a real athlete? Pick up a tennis racket
• Don’t stop believing
• Roddick deserves better than the recent word-lashing
• Attendance, sales, participation say tennis is healthy

God bless EuroSport folks. They simply do a much better job than anyone I have seen in the U.S. But unfortunately, you need to have to shell out some crazy amount of money to get the ATP Masters Series TV unless you live in Europe.

As bad as the commentating has been in the U.S., I take the goold old Macenroe to Justin any day of the week. With Justin, you end up listening to his nonesense and it’s distracting. With McEnroe, at least you get to watch tennis without much distraction. Then again, you can always use the text commentary which is much better than torturing yourself with the likes of Gimbelstob.