
Finally we are here. The final of the first Grand Slam of the year. The surprising part? Federer is not in the final this time around. A certain Djoker took him out in straight sets in the semis. Nadal isn’t in the final either, but that is not really a surprise as Nadal has always underperformed on hard courts. Instead we have a Muhammad Ali lookalike that plays as Ali boxed once. So let’s break down the fight:
Forehand: Both of these guys have great forehands, but Tsonga’s forehand is more explosive. So I would give him the end on the forehand side.
Backhand: Both of these guys have solid backhands, but Djokovic’s backhand is more of a weapon and is a reliable shot for him. I would give the edge to Djokovic here.
Serve: I would call this even. Both of these guys can serve big, and both can hit the lines.
Movement: Tsonga and Djokovic are both great athletes, but the movement advantage should go to Djokovic. That’s not to say that Tsonga doesn’t move great, but Djokovic relies more on it to beat his opponents (you can’t beat Federer with sub par movement, just ask Roddick).
Intangibles: I would call this even. Djokovic is coming from a really strong finish against Federer, and he has beaten some tough shots such as Hewitt and Ferrer in straight sets as well. Tsonga has beaten Murray, Nadal, and Gasquet. But he has the support of the crowd too! So it would be even in my mind.
Experience: Djokovic is the more experienced one, and if the history is a good indicator (at least in Ivanovic’s case) Serbs get better by experiencing finals before. I know that Wilander called Djokovic’s experience as a negative and positive. After all, Novak choked big time against Roger in the U.S. Open final, but this time he will be better and ready to take his first Grand Slam. But Tsonga has no experience in comparison to Novak. So who’s to say that he will actually feel pressure. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain. I would give the edge to Novak, but I don’t think this will be the determining factor on the outcome of this match.
Question Marks: Novak is susceptible to choking. He has done it before, and he will do it again, but will it be tonight. Tsonga on the other hand hasn’t been around much to experience a major choke. But what worries me about Tsonga is his 0-6 set against Murray. At this level, such a set could kill you. He did bounce back to win that match, but who knows what would’ve happened had Murray won that 4th set. Fitness is also a big issue for both of these guys, but Tsonga not playing a 5 setter in his career before can only hurt him. I don’t expect this match to go to 5 sets, but if it does, Djokovic should be the slight favorite there.
Prediction: I am really torn on this. I love Tsonga and how he handles himself on and off the court. Djokovic is simply rude and overconfident, somewhat cocky. At the same time, Djokovic seems to be destined for this title. In fact, he should have won his first Grand Slam last year against Federer. If I could control the outcome of the match, I would give it to Tsonga as he is my favorite, but everything points to Djokovic winning his first Grand Slam tonight. After all, it would be unthinkable for him to call all this way and beat Federer in straight sets to lose to Tsonga. So unfortunately, Djokovic will win in 4 or maybe even 3 tight sets. But I really hope I am wrong!